Today, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Does the United States want out of the conflict?
Of course it does.
But getting out at the cost of open political humiliation would be extremely difficult.
Especially for Trump, who is already framing what is happening as a show of strength rather than a concession. At this point, this is not a signed peace agreement, but merely a pause ahead of negotiations.
So far, nothing in the rhetoric of the Iranian regime suggests any real willingness to change course.
On the contrary, Tehran is already trying to present even this temporary ceasefire as a victory of its own.
That is exactly why I still see no reason to treat what is happening as the beginning of a stable peace.
It looks far more like a tactical pause: time to assess the damage, regroup, restore capabilities, and determine the next course of action.
If this pause is eventually turned into a full peace agreement on Iranian terms, then yes, that would amount to a serious political defeat for both the United States and Israel.
But for now, it is too early to speak of that as an accomplished fact.
So at this point, in my view, Iran is just as far from a real peace as it was at the beginning of the war.
But for Israel, this pause should still be seen as a warning sign: even the strongest ally, at a decisive moment, will look first and foremost for the exit that suits its own interests, and not necessarily for the outcome that we need.