The Election of Mojtaba

Iran’s Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader.

That decision says a great deal about the direction the system is choosing.

First, Iran’s leadership is in effect betting on an even harder line.
The new leader is closely identified with the security apparatus and is considered part of the regime’s most radical wing.
That means the space for negotiation and compromise is becoming even narrower.

Second, the system is losing part of its own legitimacy.
The Islamic Republic always claimed that its rule was based on religious authority and institutions, not on dynastic succession of the sort associated with the Shah’s regime, which it itself once overthrew.
Now the son of the previous dictator is becoming Supreme Leader, and that will inevitably evoke inside the country, both among the public and among the elites, associations much closer to dynastic transfer of power than to any true theocratic model.

It is especially revealing that the founder of the regime, Ruhollah Khomeini, was careful in his own time to avoid steps like this and did not allow his son to rise to the centers of power, even though such proposals did exist.

Third, this decision significantly complicates the situation for everyone.
The loss of part of the regime’s legitimacy and the strengthened role of the security establishment create greater internal tensions.
At the same time, the paradox is that the number of ways to resolve the Iranian crisis keeps shrinking: the continued existence of such a regime is unacceptable from Israel’s point of view.

In the end, what we see is that we are still very far from the real outcome of this war.