Tonight and the coming days will be decisive for the current ceasefire
From the very beginning, I did not see this pause as the start of real peace. A diplomatic way out was not visible from the outset.
Iran does not look like a side ready for real concessions.
The United States also cannot simply end this campaign without a result that can be presented as a victory.
During the pause, the Americans moved additional forces into the region, strengthened their military presence and are continuing the blockade.
And if the war resumes, it should resume with a new plan and new forces, not as yet another war of attrition.
The central question is whether Trump is ready to pursue a real strategic result, rather than merely trying to declare one.
Yes, the ceasefire may be extended again.
But if it is, it will most likely be for military reasons, not because a real diplomatic opportunity has opened.
And such an extension will not bring anyone closer to peace. It will only postpone the return of the war once again.