What Victory in the War with Iran Looks Like

Victory in the war against Iran. What does it look like, and what does it not look like?

After two wars with Iran, after the wars with Hezbollah, after all the victims and destruction the Iranian regime has brought upon us, my criterion for victory here is this:

If the ayatollahs’ regime remains in place, I do not see that as a victory.
I see it as a pause before the next war.

Because this is the Iran of the ayatollahs.
A regime that for decades built its policy, its military strategy, and its regional influence around hatred of Israel, terror, and the idea of our destruction.
And after two wars with Israel, it will only become more radical, angrier, and even more obsessed with the survival of the regime itself.

A regime like that does not become a safe neighbor simply because it has been weakened for a while.
It will not conclude, “Enough, let us focus on improving the lives of our citizens.”
It will reach a different conclusion:
next time, it needs to come to war better prepared.

That is why an agreement with the ayatollahs is not, for me, a victory.
A significant reduction of the threat is not a victory.
A postponement is not a victory.

And “significant reduction of the threat” means Iran would preserve a regime that will continue to:
rebuild its missile array,
rearm its proxies,
and wait for a more convenient international moment before the next round.

A good limiting agreement, why is that not a victory?

Because for any agreement to hold, it needs a guarantor backed by force.
And who exactly would that guarantor be?

The United States?
I do not think it is wise to entrust the future of our country to the voters of another country.
Today the president is Trump, who supports Israel.
In the next term, that could change sharply.
And the data on rising antisemitism in the United States does not exactly inspire confidence.

Europe?
It is not a guarantor even for itself.

From Israel’s point of view, victory here is possible only through regime change in Iran.

Right now, an exceptionally rare window of opportunity has opened:
the United States is involved,
part of the Arab world is effectively on our side,
and Iran and its proxies have been weakened.

And if we do not secure a long-term result now, there is a very real chance that such a window will not open again.

That is exactly why I do not consider it a victory if we are once again sold the familiar formula:
“We significantly weakened the threat.”

We already know too well the price of formulas like that.
Another war.
More victims.
Another postponement instead of a solution.

Victory in this war is only a result after which the next Iranian war will not be almost inevitable.

If the ayatollahs’ regime remains in power, I do not see how that is possible.

How exactly I imagine the path to such an outcome is a subject for a separate post.